With Douglas Carswell's vote of no confidence in Michael Martin imminent it is worth wondering what the minimum vote that will be needed to cause his resignation. Given the tribal loyalties of Labour I strongly suspect that Carswell will not get an absolute majority but that does not mean that Martin is safe. From a historical point-of-view it is worth remembering that Chamberlain actually won the vote in May 1940 but was forced to go because his majority had been slashed.
Now obviously the circumstances are very different, it does mean that given a sufficient minority Martin is doomed. The question is what size of minority will be needed before Martin gets the hint?
Just a few votes against him and he will survive but I don't think that that will happen. There is just too much feeling against him. I suspect that it will be the number of abstentions that will be crucial. MPs might not feel upto positively voting against him, but they realise that he will have to go. A high level of abstentions will force him out just as much as a positive vote against.
Will Nick Clegg's intervention allow more high profile MPs to come out against him?
I hope so.....
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